GoldCOTThis week in silver, almost 5,000 new contracts entered the race and the vast majority of new action was in the commercials, specifically the swap dealers.  Large specs were virtually silent and the small specs overall reduced their open interest positions significantly.
In gold, almost 32,500 additional contracts were added to total open interest and the disaggregated numbers reveals the producer merchant had the lion’s share of the action by a more than 5 to 1 margin over the swap dealers!
Think about what is going on behind the scenes:

New SDB new look
By SD Contributor Marshall Swing:

Regarding people who made comments on the last COT  article that I do in fact believe the numbers we get from the CFTC to be accurate based on many years of following these numbers and being able to accurately predict price movement the majority of the time.

I was the only analyst I know of anywhere who accurately predicted the price collapse of the gold and silver market the last 2 years – based on the COT numbers.  There are a couple of TA analysts who made an occasional bear prediction but nothing consistently from when silver was in the $36+ and saying it would collapse all the way below $20.  Those predictions just gave me assurance I could trust the numbers and my hypotheses and assumptions.

This week in silver, almost 5,000 new contracts entered the race and the vast majority of new action was in the commercials, specifically the swap dealers.  Large specs were virtually silent and the small specs overall reduced their open interest positions significantly.  Very strange open interest patterns.  Not at all sure what to make of it but the producer merchant did increase their net short position again.

 

In gold, maybe we get a larger piece of the puzzle?  Here almost 32,500 additional contracts were added to total open interest and the disaggregated numbers reveals the producer merchant had the lion’s share of the action by a more than 5 to 1 margin over the swap dealers!

 

Think about what is going on behind the scenes!  Those massive numbers of new longs and shorts were both placed by the same bullion bank(s)!  So what can we surmise is going on there?  Either a big client of the bank entered the market long (most likely) or they entered short (least likely) and the bank turned around and took the opposite side of the bet so their client could get in the game!!  I cannot imagine any client of the bank going short at this low point but with the various banks predicting lower prices, who knows?  Perhaps the banks don’t mind taking the opposite longs because they know what might go down will, in the not too distant future, skyrocket.  My guess for blastoff is 2015.  That’s not very long for the bank to wait while treading water on a sure thing.

 

Of course, the really ugly scenario is that those 32,500 gold contracts are all just the bank money and they know for a fact price is going to drop so they will collect the money on the shorts and hold the longs until 2015 when price skyrockets.

 

Pick your poison!

 

2014 Silver Maples With Security Mint Mark
As Low As $1.99 Over Spot at SDBullion!

 

SilverCOT

 

GoldCOT

 

Lead bullion

  1. I believe 2014 will be a year with a few very big surprises that will propel the metals back off of the ground floor. We wont have to wait until 2015 is my bet. Big doings afoot globally and the financial world will be hit quite hard. What, when…….who knows, but I feel there will be serious turmoil that will rock the foundation.

  2. Good morning Marshall  It’s good to see you back here at SD
    Here is my take on COT and banksters.  As a former banker, we could give a rat’s behind about our clients, whether depositor or borrower, unless it was to keep them on the pad, raking off fees, costs and interests.  It was a policy of our bank to make sure we were charging enough to maintain the maximally profitable extractions but not so much to send customers packing to a cheaper bank venue.  That was an ongoing policy over 25 years ago.  Human nature of banksters  is like the hares and hounds.
    The hares run;  the hounds chase. 
    Today, as before, the banksters worry about their yachts.  The customers get dingys.
    If these banksters have not changed their stripes in the last 25 years, they’re always striving to be on the profitable side of the trade. It matters not if the client on the wrong side. Failure to pay is just another excuse to steal the client’s assets.
    When dealing with a bankster remember the phrase: Caveat Dumpster 
    It might be that the client is occasionally on the right side of the trade but only if the bankster allows it.  A good con always leaves the mark  with enough remaining money to be fleeced  again and again. 
    The banksters are like casinos.  Big buildings with their names on the top floor.  The losers are just that; losers. The rake and toke at the poker and card tables is VERY profitable, requiring little effort on the part of the casino to make billions. Sheldon Adelson didn’t become a multi billionaire dabbling in the sands of Las Vegas.  Nor did Dimon, dabbling in the precious metals markets. The 20% rake and 2% toke  at the card tables or in the bankers office is the price of playing with the big boys, or so they will tell you. The customers always go broke hanging out with banksters.   The bank’s vig is one of the biggest eroders of wealth in the world.  The bankers nearly always win. Politicians are some of the same breed.
    If you want a friend, buy a dog.  Bankers and politicians are never our friends
    If the banks want to make money in the precious metals market by shorting or taking both sides, subjecting the dumb money clients to the whip saw action of losses that inevitably pile up,  they will do that until hell freezes over.   How do we stackers become more aware of these actions and stack more effectively?
    It still seems that the opaque nature of the COT fails to give solid clues to the price directions even in the fullness of time.
    Or so it seems to those of us not well informed of such matters.

    • “The bankers nearly always win. Politicians are some of the same breed.”
       
      Just so, AG.  A very wise man once told me that if I desired financial independence, I must scrupulously avoid contact with bankers, lawyers, politicians, and whores.  He said that any one of these could ruin a man and 2 or more of them pretty much guarantee it.  I have followed that advice and my wealth is pretty much unscathed these days… so far, anyway, and that’s about as good as anyone can do, so the advice definitely had merit.
       
      Apologies in advance for including the working girls in with these scumbags but that was part of the advice I was given and not anything I invented.  They deserve better company, for sure.
       

  3. Hi! Marshal I for one look forward to your Cot Report every weekend and sometimes Doc doesn’t post it which is a little upsetting but at least you have had one follower for the past few years.
    As for: “My guess for blastoff is 2015″.  Well sorry Marshall but I see the PM’s heading up very shortly. Lol Keep Stacking

Leave a Reply