jones gold 2In his latest update, Silver Bullet Silver Shield’s Chris Duane responds to questions on why silver has traded down over the past year and a half since May 2011, and whether it is time to follow many precious metals analysts, and sell their metals.
Duane responds by discussing silver’s Giffen good status, market sentiment, and a review of the fundamentals.
Duane states that while this is the right path, it is not the easiest to walk, and urges precious metals investors ready to throw in the towel to consider the fact that the western financial system is in orders of magnitude worse condition today than it was in 2008 when the entire system came within 1 hour of shutting down.
Chris Duane’s full response on why silver has not gone up over the past 2 years, as well as his outlook over the next several years for the metals and markets in general is below:

Trivium 5 oz 2

 

  1. Somewhere somebody finds it incumbent upon Chris Duane to explain why Silver hasn’t performed up to their expectations.  That’s kind of unfortunate.  Why hasn’t it gone up?  To give you more time to buy cheap Silver.  That’s why.  Prices will break out after awhile. 

  2. The way I see it we are in a depression not a recession. When you have 50% of the population on some form of government assistance you are in a depression. the US government has done well to hide and deceive its citizens to believe we are recovering when in fact we are not. It does this by 1) controling the media, 2) releasing false/manipulated data 3)price controls and 4) distraction. 
    During depressions a tool that is used by a government is price control. The first thing you see price controls in are the most important to its society. Silver just so happens to be to important of a commodity to let it roam free 100% of the time. If the US government didnt control the price of Silver we would have already seen a gold to silver ratio of 1:1. Like in the great depression of the 1930s price controls cant be mantained forever because Businesses tend to shutdown when they dont turn a profit. When Silver becomes scarce due to non production and other companies begin to pay unheard of high prices for the metal to stay in business thats when the government allows the price of silver to rise. 
    As the Depression worsens you will see:
    1) More control of the media to the point of it being absolutly obsurd. 
    2) More manipulated data. Like unemployment has dropped another 1% yet 1 out of 3 people you know will be unemployeed.
    3) More price control. Only it wont only be in Silver but boil over into food. Just wait and see when the food stamp problem worsens!
    4) More distractions. Like War.
     
    For myself I have come to expect price controls and realized this would happen in 2012. For me it became apparent when QE3 was announced and Silver didnt explode higher as it did during QE2s announcement. I figured it would fall below support of $28 and fall to its next major support level of $22. The chart patterns/shapes also said this to me. Just look at a 10 year chart of Silver. For myself I saw in 2012 that 2011-12 looked like a bigger version of the chart of what happened in 2008 on the same chart. the 2 years after 2008 Silver dropped by 50%. Then when all the suckers sold the price rose 5 fold. If we start at the bottom of Silvers average at $22 per ounce in 2013 this to me tells me Silver is headed towards $100 by June 2015. Not that it will matter if the price of everyday goods rises 5 fold as well. Like: $15 per gallon of gas, $5 for a can of soda, a package of Steak costing $25 etc.
    Another chart pattern has materized for me in the USDX. Since 2008 the USDX has taken a full year to drop by 10 points. Happened twice From 85ish level to 75ish level. Recently in 2013 the USDX has changed its trading range from 75-85 to 79-83. I believe this is a temporary chart movement and will return to its 10 point chart movement starting after the debt ceiling is raised. Which should now be in February 2014. One full year after the debt ceiling is raised we will see a weakening of the Usdx/dollar from 80 all the way down to 70. Once 70 support is breached Hyperinflation will rear its ugly head. Between now and then we will see a steady rise in commodity prices in the food sector. Then somewhere in late 2014 to maybe early 2015 Prices will begin to jump startlingly high. When prices start jumping high this will signal the Fed and US government has lost control. Panic will ensue and if Silver is still surpressed up to that point it wont any longer and just explode upward. Silver and Gold will jump so high you will be able to distinguish Silver investors in everyday life because they will be the only people walking around with a smile on there face. The rest of society will be in absolute dispair and look like pyscho killers.

    • Media control is here. NBC puplished an article critical of obamacrap and today it has been replaced with a sanitized version. No explanation why of course and once out on the internet it is impossible to retract it.

  3. Agreed StackerX  When silver does go straight up and prices rocket up along side the price of silver, but not as fast, anyone with a stack should dress down and blend in to conceal their wealth.  In the 197os, when prices were ramping upwards at 10% a year, no one realized what hit them with the exceptional few who could do the math regarding FIAT printing and debt.  Those few who had silver and gold saw 2000% increases in just a couple of years.  But then, as opposed to now, there was only 10% unemployment, not 22% and only a handful of people got government assistance.  Today 100,000,000 get assistance from the government and inflation will fly past their meager income and devastate them.  OPSEC and stealth will be needed to blend in

    • @AGXIIK like I have said before our entire financial system is going to go crazy! I won’t be among the smiling Silver Investor because their will be so much despair in our society it will probably be depressing. When the EBT – food stamp cards were shut off three Saturdays ago I happened to be shopping at Staples. When I got out a lady with three young children approached me and asked for money for food assistance. I was taken aback because in my head I was like theirs no way the government would shut EBT cards before the debt ceiling deadline. It was basically heart breaking. To me she symbolizes 50% of our population. 
      When SHTF first 3 days will be disbelief. After one week pure anger. After two weeks survival instincts kick in and mayhem ensues. Instead of blending in we will need camouflage. The only thing we can do now is to institute Celentes  (Triple G) strategy which is to have Guns, Gold-Silver and a Get away plan. Or you could just resort to cannibalism. Your choice. Damn thats dark.

  4. I’ve managed to buy 800 ounces of silver so far, i guess everyone is different but whats a good number to aim for? I’m personally aiming for 1000 ounces, is this considered above average for silver holdings? or am i just a small player?

    • Who:
       My favorite response to this question is that unless you have it ALL, you don’t have enough.  Seriously, look at your particular situation.  Your family, inlaws, outlaws (smile), and anyone else that will come running when the SHTF.  You will need to have food, water, and guns and ammo to ensure your sitituation doesn’t ebb lower than you can handle.  Get all your fiat out of any banks’ control.  If you can’t put your hands on it, you don’t own it.  My guess is you’ll need quite a bit more, but any you have is a plus. Hope this helps.  God bless you and yours!

    • Silver is meant to preserve your wealth. If you are dead for lack of food, protection etc. what was the point. My guess is Silver and Gold will be useful after a collapse and society resumes as it was. If you don’t have a years worth of food and other essentials you have enough gold and silver. If you do than get what ever gold and silver you can get your hands on. If you have lots of gold and silver it can be traded for other life essentials but you will be trading with desperate people during desperate times. Get the essentials first then build your treasure chest. As far as an amount 1000oz sounds like a good amount. That should buy you a really nice house free and clear after the reset. 

    • the vast majority of people in the world own ZERO silver, so any is better than nothing. Despite getting my face melted off the lats year I’ll continue to pick away at a position until things finally break down. I would just keep my head down, stack and not mention to anyone how much I have.
       
      In other news, I notice some people are fed up with hearing Chris Duane, but the fact is he is bringing people into the world of stacking. Also, he has done a favor exposing the fraud of Rob Gray at the mulligan mint, as well as pantsing his acolytes including adam kokesh and jack spirko.

    • I’m with Canadian Dirtlump.  Mose people own 0 silver/gold bullion.  If there is somewhere around 14 people on earth for every 1oz silver bullion currently available, then I’d say having 800 is one hell of a lions share!  I keep thinking 1000 oz! Damn thats a lot!  If there is a 2000% increase/gain, that makes an 800oz hoard worth about 48 million!  But then the UBER rich become KINGS! (what a yucky thought!)  Those who own a TON of gold or silver on a pallet in their basement!
      Everyone else eats moldy straw left over from the horses I guess? LMAO-
      Ok, anyhow, now that I’ve had my fun… 800 oz is a completely do-able stack for anyone with conviction and a decent income!  But aside from your stacking convictions (which will pay off handsomely) the greater factor in your reward is not only that you have a lot, but others have NONE! (picture a line of thirsty people swapping goods to the man with barrels of water- selling in 20 oz bottles.)
      YOU HAVE —– THEY DO NOT.

  5. Ted Butler, a true market expert, nailed this ten years ago when he hypothesized that China, not the President’s Working Group on Markets, is the paper short in the precious metals market.
     
    Remember back to Blythe Masters’ interview where she stated that JPM was acting on behalf of an actual client.  We all assumed it’s the U.S. Gov’t, but what makes even more sense is that the client is actually the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund. 
     
    China and Russia are a tag-team now and both have been hoarding domestic gold and silver mine production for years.  Neither have published their true holdings of gold and silver.  Why should they?  And I think when they do the amount of gold they, especially China, hold will shock the world.
     
    China is acting in away that suggests their goal is to drain the West of gold, not accumulate more gold.  Funny thing about the buying psychology of gold, when prices are low, consumers don’t buy.  Rising prices triggers buying.  So if China wanted to drain the West, she would keep prices down.  This has the added punch of shuttering the miners.  Prolonged low prices are triggering Western mine closings while the Chinese and the Russian mines run at 100%.
     
    If you’re China and you’re holding $1.2T in soon to be worthless t-bills, then wouldn’t you use your dollars to short the precious metal market?  You don’t care if you lose your fiat, because it’s already lost.  So, why not drain the West of her gold.  That way when China announces her new gold backed Renminbi, the Renminbi will be ushered in as the new global reserve currency.
     
    From Sun Tzu’s, the Art of War, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
     
     
     
     
     

  6. I agree that the SHTF scenario is coming, do any of you people think silver is going to save you a 1000 ounces of metal that you cant eat, when bread is 500 a loaf your silver will be gone in 2 months and then what? and that’s if people will give you any food for any amount of gold or silver. Your metal will be worthless.
    Buy food at todays prices if you believe the crisis is coming stock up on food that has a shelf life of 30 years you will be better off, in a worst case scenario you will have more bargaining power with cigarettes than gold or silver.
    You will see that when you have one can of soup left you are not going to trade it even for a 1000 oz. of gold.

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