SD reader BattleBeagle has put together two outstanding silver charts analyzing Silver Eagle sales data from the US Mint.
The first chart of the day examines the divergences of ASE’s sold vs. the silver spot price, and the 2nd examines the quantity of ASE’s sold by the mint vs. the total dollar value of US Mint silver purchases, which is spiking to an all-time high.
MUST SEE Silver Chart(s) of the Day are below:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_silv.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_gold.gif)
It just gets more crazy by the day. Utter buffoonery.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-14/fed-gives-14-18-banks-green-light-reward-shareholders-goldman-jpm-get-special-treatm
Do that against 1000oz bar and I’m guessing the picture looks much different. IMHO coins are not a good proxy for silver demand.
Silver prices do not depend on the demand. Always, when silver prices were higher than at present, the demand for silver was lower than now.
I don’t consider an ASE a coin, go try to spend one somewhere….
I don’t believe that we have any idea what The Fed and The US Treasury Dept has in store for us. A wall is being built so high that we will never be able to climb over it.
Ranger
@ Ranger
I would like to agree with your argument. But the diagram in silver prices over the last 10 years, does not allow to do it for my mind.
Waiting for some positive price action in silver is proving to be akin to waiting for the date with the hot chick..
News like this is interesting and we see endless what SHOULD be positive news for silver.. Then reality sets in.
@Canook Dirtlump
The Doc has to post something when later than expectations occur. Been putting up with the Maybe’s, Possible’s for a very long time. Viewing charts is worthless. Bilderbergs control it all my friend.
Ranger
@ Ranger
If the Bilderberg Group was able to control it all, the price of silver was now only five dollars per ounce and gold $ 300 an ounce.
Or do you think it was done with the U.S. dollar by the decision of the Bilderbergers?
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/AUPPBasket.php
I think I am on the same page as ranger in the sense that they cannot pick a price, but you’d need to be a fool, based on all available data to not think they actively work to suppress the price.
My local coin store guy, who has been in the business more than 40 years is now running very long radio commercials. He has hired a locally well known voice to educate the public to the value of junk silver. I mean the add goes into detail to educate the non metals buying public on exactly what to look for. Then instructs them to bring them to him and he will pay $20.00 for $1.00 face, which isn`t a bad deal.
I don`t know what to make of this. Everyone I know learned this stuff the hard way. Mabey he has demand far exceeds his supply. I don`t know, but it seemed pretty unique to me.
Wish we could hear that spot Silver Dollar!
Actually saw a few ASE in the display case in one of my LCS this week. They weren’t there long. Keep hearing others say finding them isn’t hard in their area. Wow…lucky them. Hope they are grabbing them while they can, at these price levels with both hands!
Keep thinking this price weakness won’t last & if it does or prices go down..sure don’t expect to find anything but graded stuff or numismatics….We need prices to rise in the worst way….seems to me that’s only way to get people to maybe sell and fill some display cases again…..
Sounds like he’s just a good business man and you probably shouldn’t read more into it than that. When the price of silver trades at $27.65 per ounce, 90% US “junk” silver trades at a 20 times face ratio (not counting silver dollars, which have a bit more silver in them per dollar versus, say, ten dimes). He can turn around and sell junk silver for a premium these days. Say he sells for a 3% premium. As I type, silver trades at $28.84. Add a 3% premium and the sales price equates to $29.71 per ounce of silver content. Subtract 29.71 by 27.65 and you get a spread of $2.06, a spread of 7.45% over the $27.65 basis. That’s a respectable spread. He can run that trade over and over, book profits, and buy physical for himself as a result.
Since SAE sales make up such a small part of the overall silver market, should investors put much stock into the sale numbers?
Overall SAE still don’t amount to much, every little bit helps, but I don’t think it makes much difference to the overall physical demand.
A lot of people buying a little bit is what could break the silver market wide open. What if every American purchased just one silver eagle?
@ ZMan
I’m sorry, but I’m tired of repeating: the price of silver are not depending on the demand for silver.
Try to find on the chart for the last 12 years, at least one dependency silver prices on the demand for silver. And then forget about it.
Silver prices depend on:
1. The price of gold
2. The price of the paper about silver.
Only these two dependencies, you can see on the charts of silver. But you will not find on these charts depending silver prices on the demand for physical silver.
@zman: 2013 Silver Eagle sales will likely leap over 2011′s record of about 40 million oz sold. That would equate to about a third of all ounces sold as coin in 2013 if ratios of previous year’s coin sales hold true (and they likely will). That’s a material percentage by my eye. Furthermore, as a percentage of net investment demand, Eagles will easily represent a big chunk. Just look at the Silver Institute’s numbers for contex. Take 2011 as an example. We saw about 40 million Silver Eagles sold. Divided that by 278 million ounces, which was the combined total of global coin and jewelry silver consumption. Result: Silver Eagles represented about 14.39% of 2011 global physical investment demand. That’s not insignificant, and by my lumping all jewelry sales into the investment demand category (not true), I’m actually making the percentage figure all the more conservative.
I believe the Silver Institute’s numbers and methodology are not perfect. But the numbers are good enough to back up what I’m saying.
He is trying to breach the ramparts of the IPhone, IPad, Starbucks crowd. They have built a fortress of ignorance, he is trying to overcome.
If they stop in his store, he may not only buy junk form them, they may actually buy something from him, You never know.
There is nothing wrong in this country that can`t be fixed with effort. Real effort.
This is a great video.
Thanks for the link. Nice to here a talking head that isn`t frothing at the mouth.
Personally I don`t think 40, 60 million ounces will have much effect on the market overall but its a start. Slightly concerned that the projected increase in production isn`t being talked about much in the bull head world.
Lets not forget that there is not a shortage of silver it`s just the price that they mine it at that matters.
<I now take a moment to put my flame retardant suite on>
Ok so from both chart it looks like price and # of eagles sold are pretty well correlated up until 2008. So riddle me this, if the cartel has been manipulating metals prices for as long as everyone seems to believe, then why the divergence in 2008?
In a free market, price will get pulled up when demand increases. So by pounding price down and MOPE campaigns, the cartel could depress sales of ASEs. So should I be reading this that the divergence within the last year is a signal that physical buyers are not ignoring the MOPE?
If this all holds true there are only two ways this plays out. The cartel is able to beat the price down long enough that people lose faith and sales of ASEs drop. Or, buying continues at an increased pace finally breaking the cartel’s back. So which will happen first?
@ LastStraw
In the cartel has no chance of winning. They can only prolong the agony. Cartel can not hold the price of silver even just because they can not keep the price of gold, from which there is strong dependence on the price of silver.
It’s not about supply and demand right now. The PM markets get manipulated in many ways. The physical demand is not important currently to drive prices down. The swaps, leasing, and derivatives can manipulate prices down without actually buying or selling any metal. The FX markets also make it difficult to see the movement in the metals if they are all going down at the same time. The ESF doesn’t have any congressional oversight and is all off balance sheet. They don’t have to show what they do when it comes to leasing or selling gold on the market. It’s almost impossible to track. All the ETF’s that represent the metals without actually owning the physical asset has produces a matrix of price. The libor rate also kept the prices in check for the PM. Interest rates were manipulated lower so this created lower leasing rates for the PM. It’s all a big circle jerk right now. Supply and demand will once again reign supreme when the system has a major default or restructuring. People need to stop looking at price unless they are selling or buying at that moment. The PM are for the next system not the current one.
Chris Powell describes it better in this video.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000154282
I am not an American. But I bought 600 pieces silver American Eagle. And 600 pieces silver Maple Leaf. And 600 pieces silver Vienna Philharmonic. And 600 pieces silver Noah’s Ark. Now I want to buy 600 pieces silver Somalia Elephant.
And I will buy again on the all same amount, if the price is lower.
But I do not see lower prices for silver coins. I only see premium growth for silver coins in 6 times in the last three months.
Silverman, I get it, there is not a direct correlation between demand (physical buying) and price. Anytime there is inventory, price can be managed despite good demand. What different does it make if inventory is at 100 oz or 1 billion ozs, as long there is a inventory.
What can”t be managed is very strong physical demand that drains the inventory down to 0. If demand was that rodust, there is no managing the price, that rodust demand has not yet happened.
The gold market is much easier to manage, it’s a huge market, they will never run out. Silver is different, the available silver is very limited.
@ ZMan
Sorry, I did not understand you. The smaller the market, the easier it is to manage them and the easier it is to manipulate it. But you’re saying the opposite. Or do you mean not the market, and the multiplier lever for the market?
Now there is a struggle for the silver market on the basis of demand. For this reason people around the world are buying silver. This is a World War between justice and manipulation.
@ Flying Wombat
Demand for Chinese pandas growing by 100% each year. I saw the data, it is a very big growth rate each year. China has set a target to sell panda in an amount equal to the sales SAE.
The data does not lie, there is a correlation between ASE demand and the price of silver. Goodness, there is data going back all the way to 1987 in the chart. Only a blind man could not see this. This is almost getting to Baghdad Bob levels of denial. Look at the money flow chart.
Did we have derivatives in 1987? Did we have the ETF’s to control price in 1987? There are so many more ways to control price in the PM right now compared to 1987. The markets can’t be compared. We have over 1.2 quadtrillion in OTC derivatives. The global debt to GDP is 350%. Interest rates are at zero or in some cases negative. Money flow? What about money velocity? What about lack of credit under zirp? Basically, we are in uncharted waters. That is why these chart analysis are having problems right now. Everything is manipulated especially interest rates. How in the hell can you have any price to be real if you are manipulated interest rates? Supply and demand? It doesn’t matter in this environment. Eventually it will but currently it’s irrelevant. Any indicators that people used in 1987 is completely useless in 2013. The market is so much more global and complicated now then ever before. You have these covert funds like the ESF or the plunge protection team that can set price when or how they want. You have the algo’s trading millions of trades in fractions of seconds. Did we have that in 1987? We have zero oversight to go after these criminals. We are living in a matrix of asset prices. The banks don’t have to mark to market. They can set the price to whatever they want on their balance sheet. It’s the wild west with no law for the TBTF banks. These prices are just a number to represent value. It’s all a lie and doesn’t represent reality. As many have said, just stack the PM. Keep it as long as you can. The PM will have their day. It’s just not today.
@Battle Beagle
I never looked at the dependence between the prices of silver and American Eagles or Maple Leaves. I looked only at the dependence between prices of silver and global demand for all physical silver. Such dependence in the past 12 years do not exist.
We see illogical falling prices amid rising demand and vice versa – growing prices at reduced demand for physical metal.
Here, on the SD was a separate article on this subject, together with all data and charts.
The Big Silver Funds need to SCREAM ‘FIRE’ like in a JAMMED Movie News Adds,TV ect…to all the ETF Silver Paper holders!!! $100,000.?
run it Nationally ,would be a Great investment as the prices SOAR!!!! where is our Gold?
@SilverDagger: trends suggest something similar is actually happening. Looking at GLD in particular, given the huge dumping of GLD it’s actually bullish to see gold hold up as well as it has over the last two months. No one in the mainstream media is talking about that. They’re too busy flipping “the bull is dead” and other baseless observations around. The numbers strongly suggest that there are a number of institutional investors dumping the ETF and buying physical. Six months from now, it wouldn’t surprise me to learn Soros was one of them.
The talking head stock cheerleaders on CNBC and Bloomberg use every possible opportunity to talk about PMs when they are down but avoid them when their prices are up. All their ranting about the PM bull being dead reminds me of Mark Twain’s quotation about “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”.
Given the fundamentals of PMs vs. paper currency, it is pretty clear which should be used for daily living expenses and which should be held for the long term. I will happily use fiat paper to buy stuff that I need and want, as long as people are willing to sell it to me for fiat paper. Why not?
@Flying Wombat,
Demand for Chinese pandas growing by 100% each year. I saw the data, it is a very big growth rate each year. China has set a target to sell panda in an amount equal to the sales SAE.
You know this is off topic. However, viewing the silver market in Asia the last couple of days. It appears and is somewhat telling that the cartel does not want silver over $29.00 an oz. It has been hovering at $28.80 all evening.. Not even a move upwards or downwards. I should have stated a significant move. There has got to be a reason of this manipulation that is going on. Soon as it goes over $29.00 they bring it back down. Someone go arrest Blythe and let this thing go out of control upwards..
@NetRanger808: It’s in keeping with “they” being more aggressive. We saw the same thing back in July and Sept., where every time we got near $29 it was beaten down, but all the while, it was $30 that was being defended.
Right, FW… just like a few months ago (Sept-Nov 2012) when silver topped $34 an oz. and got severely beaten down. It was not $34 that was being defended but $35.
“They” are just like you. Stacking while they can.
I hate to say this again , but we will not get to enjoy higher PM’s prices in the western world , it will be of NO use here . They will hold the prices down until the country is in a lock down , after that , they don’t give a shit to what happens to PM’s . I am giving up , selling my properties and I am out of here ( I hope it is Not to late as this can go down here at any moment , the laws are in place for a complete lock down of the country) . After 26 years , after escaping one of the east european countries , I woke up in an even bigger up and coming prison . I believe the time for HOPE is gone , and the time to get out while we can , has come(maybe it is to late ) . This WILL be the Soviet Union in the 1950 and worse .For me there is no more point to argue , I am sad and pissed, as it took me 8 years to built my 5000 sf log home and owe NOTHING on it .South America should do it for me , for the rest of my life .Sorry for being a realist but that is the way I see it, good luck to all of you .
The SAE data will be hugely significant when the current paper derivative manipulation finally runs its course. The fact that a few hundred million physical ounces have been stacked since 1986; as compared to current US domestic production of only 30M ounces/year is SIGNIFICANT to those in possession; since we know the Chinese and others are going to force the physical demand through the roof relative to supply available for investment as the fiat USD reserve currency winds down.ANY ounce tendered into the market around the time the paper charade exchange and etfs implode and default are going to command a premium equal or exceeding the rehypothicated/ponzi leverage currently in the system. Per Jeff Christian’s own admission, if there ‘s 100 paper ounces to every physical on the Comex; there will be a juncture when pulling the stacked physical back out into the market at profit will be the only play left. Most here bet the commercial shorts will be net long prior to this spike which makes the current extreme paper pounding/short covering very intrguing. Bear in mind the manipulators expect retail to sell a fair amount back up around $50 just as they will vacuum it all up and not blink until silver makes it up to $350.
“SD reader BattleBeagle has put together two outstanding silver charts analyzing Silver Eagle sales data from the US Mint.”
I just want to say that it was “Drutter” who put together at first these two charts on the sales of American Silver Eagles and the price of silver. Check him out on YouTube by the username “Drutter”.
It’s incredible that the price of silver is still that low even with all of these physical silver pieces that were sold!