betBetting on investments is not that different than betting on football games.   You identify one or two “keys to the game.”
Long bets vs. short bets …
For three years now I’ve been betting on silver as a smart investment.
My “key to the game” – and the reason I’ve made these bets – is simple enough: America, I’m betting, is effectively broke and must print money to stay in business. This assessment tells me that, at some point, the purchasing power of the dollar will decline precipitously and that demand for gold and silver will become much greater.


Submitted by Bill Rice Jr.
Last November, I bet on Auburn over my team (Alabama). I made my bet with a close friend of course. The Tigers were getting 11 points at home. I bet on the Tigers because I knew how hungry they were (as a team and their fan base) and how strong and efficient they were in the fourth quarter. They might lose, I figured, but it would be a close game and they’d have a chance to win in the end. They certainly wouldn’t lose by more than 11 points.   As it turns out, it was easy money. My hunch/insight was right on.
Betting on investments is not that different than betting on football games. You identify one or two “keys to the game.” If you feel strongly about these “keys” (and think that the betting public maybe hasn’t fully appreciated their importance), you make your bet feeling you have an “edge”-  one piece of solid knowledge you can bank on, if you will.
Long bets vs. short bets …
For three years now I’ve been betting on silver as a smart investment.   My “key to the game” – and the reason I’ve made these bets – is simple enough: America, I’m betting, is effectively broke and must print money to stay in business. This assessment tells me that, at some point, the purchasing power of the dollar will decline precipitously and that demand for gold and silver will become much greater.
Regarding the question of current and near-future prices of precious metals, it occurs to me that we might be in the midst of a revealing test.
Are prices now – finally –  “breaking out” and heading skyward?
Or: Are the Powers That Be still in control and easily able to cap prices wherever and whenever they like?
The answer to this question might be revealed shortly –  perhaps as soon as this week or in a few weeks.
Last Thursday precious metals prices surged, silver going up more than five percent in one day.   Over the past 30 days, silver prices have risen from $18.70/ounce to (as I write) $20.84/ounce.
Many gold and silver prognosticators are essentially telling us that “this is it” – the long-awaited price increase or “correction” is finally upon us.
On one hand,  fundamentals as well as geo-political and economic events seem to back up the confidence of these bullish pundits.  A partial list of “bullish” precious metals events includes the following:
 1)  Inflation is rising, something even the Fed now acknowledges, although it dismisses this as mere “noise.”
 2) Wars continuing, breaking out or threatening to break out all over the world (Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, etc).
 3). Interest rates either at near zero or even negative … and, per Fed “guidance,” set to remain so indefinitely.
4)  Continuing reports that the economy is NOT recovering as was predicted. The possibility even exists that we will soon officially be in a recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP).
 5)  Stock market “bubble” still expanding, creating (in some investors anyway) the thought that when it finally burst the fallout will be immense (and presumably make “safe haven” status of precious metals even more appealing).
  6) Demand for physical gold and silver remains high especially in China, India, Russia and among “stackers” of bullion coins.
 7) Growth of governments and government deficit spending continues unabated.
The list could go on, but I’ll stop here. The point, hopefully documented by the above, is that there is no shortage of solid, common-sense reasons precious metal prices should be rising in such a world.
On the other side of the coin (pun intended), is the mind frame of TPTB – a mind frame that is terrified of rising precious metal prices and has made the containment of precious metal prices a priority of “national security” stature.
All done to protect the dollar as the reserve currency of the world, which ensures that the U.S. government can continue to print money as needed to pay its bills. To, in other words, preserve the Status Quo.

The ‘keys to the game’
So in attempting to predict future prices, one must consider  which dynamic/event/mind frame should be given the greatest weight.
Who or what consideration will carry the day? Pro precious metal “developments” or the resolve of powerful entities who many of us assume are completely committed to preventing a “break out” in prices?
If you were a betting man, who would  you bet ultimately prevails?
Or: what’s going to prove to be the deciding factor in establishing today and tomorrow’s prices?
After all, we all are making bets, aren’t we? This is going to happen or this is NOT going to happen. Lay your money down.
When betting on the outcome of, say, a football game don’t those of us who have checked a line sheet in our lives perform a mental calculus on what factor will prove most important in deciding a game and the final point spread?
I know I do. Is the home-field the most important consideration? One team more motivated than another? One coach better in big games? Does one team have the stronger offensive line, which will wear down the other team in the fourth quarter?
When making (hopefully) an educated wager, we assign “weights” in attempting to predict a future occurrence.
There might be seven reasons for betting on, say, Auburn, to cover the spread but what’s the one factor that trumps all the others?
Last November, I bet on Auburn over my team (Alabama). I made my bet with a close friend of course. The Tigers were getting 11 points at home. I bet on the Tigers because I knew how hungry they were (as a team and their fan base) and how strong and efficient they were in the fourth quarter. They might lose, I figured, but it would be a close game and they’d have a chance to win in the end. They certainly wouldn’t lose by more than 11 points.   As it turns out, it was easy money. My hunch/insight was right on.
Betting on investments is not that different than betting on football games. You identify one or two “keys to the game.” If you feel strongly about these “keys” (and think that the betting public maybe hasn’t fully appreciated their importance), you make your bet feeling you have an “edge”-  one piece of solid knowledge you can bank on, if you will.
Long bets vs. short bets …
For three years now I’ve been betting on silver as a smart investment.   My “key to the game” – and the reason I’ve made these bets – is simple enough: America, I’m betting, is effectively broke and must print money to stay in business. This assessment tells me that, at some point, the purchasing power of the dollar will decline precipitously and that demand for gold and silver will become much greater.
In investing parlance, I’m “long” precious metals. I don’t know when my hunch will be validated by events, just that at some point that it will.
Is that time now though? What about a short-term bet? A bet I’d have to place today and cash in or pay out in a couple of weeks or months?
Which brings me to the “test” I mentioned at the beginning of this column.
Are the long-term fundamentals finally starting to prevail and push prices higher, with more increases to be expected in June, July, August?
Or is the other hunch I’ve acquired – that The Powers That Be control prices and will do EVERYTHING they can to keep them “contained” –  still “the key to the game?”
Who do I bet on? What betting variable is THE KEY?
If I was a betting man, I’d have to bet on The Powers that Be right now. After all, my working assumption is this: When everything points to prices going higher, the people who establish the price no doubt know this. If this is indeed a worst case scenario from their point of view, doesn’t it make sense that they are going to pull out all the stops to prevent this occurrence (rising prices) from happening?
Three quick questions:
Is “capping” prices vital to them? Check.
Do they have the means to cap (and reverse) prices? Check.
Is this, therefore, what will happen?
If I had to, this would have to be my bet. To me, the most important  “key to predicting the game” is the fact that one group of people and institutions CAN determine the price (and said desirable price is not “through the roof”).
Considered differently, if “they” do not knock-down the price today or in the near future (and, as assumed, they possess the means to do so), then maybe this price control operation was not as crucial to them as we’ve been led to believe it was.
The test we might be watching right now then is a test to see how important price control is to The Powers that Be. If it’s as important as many of us believe, prices will be nipped in the bud soon enough.
To not take this action is to let “fundamentals” and the “free market” do what they will.
This would effectively represent a surrender – or at least a major change in strategy – on the part of the Manipulators.
For my part, I don’t think TPTB are willing to surrender just yet. Or think that they have to surrender just yet.
But, just like in a football game, we will know what happens soon enough.
If TPTB were going to raise the white flag and change strategies, with all that’s happening in the world and with what happened to precious metal prices last week, now might be the time they tip their hand and signal that they are through intervening in the precious metals markets.
Maybe this is what’s going to happen and indeed is happening even as I write. In which case, I’d lose my short-term bet but cash a winner with my long-term bet on silver.
I’d be happy to lose, just like I would have been happy to lose my bet on Auburn last November.
But, for now, I don’t think I’m going to lose. The key to this bet is still the fact that The Powers That Be want to keep prices contained. And, for now, can still do this. In my wager analysis, this is the consideration that should carry the most weight.
But this week might be a test that proves whether this “key” still applies.
Is the game still rigged or are all bets (outcomes) finally possible?
As mentioned, the answer to this test question might be coming as soon as this week. Like most silver “fans,” I’ll be watching closely to see what transpires. What happens could tell us much about where we place our wagers in the months to come.
***
Bill Rice, Jr. is managing editor of The Montgomery (AL) Indepedent. He can be reached by email at bill@montgomeryindependent.com.

HEROES SDWC D-Day- Available NOW at SDBullion!  
LIMITED MINTAGE:

10,000 Brilliant Uncirculated 1 oz Coins- in honor of the 10,000 Allied casualties suffered on D-Day
1,557 Proof 1 oz Coins- in honor of the 1,557 MIA Americans whose names are inscribed on the memorial
wall in the Normandy American Cemetery Garden of the Missing.

Each of the individually numbered COA’s will specifically honor one of the 1,557 American Heroes MIA on D-Day, including their Rank, Name, Unit, Home State, & Decorations.

HEROES_With_Flag_2

  1. I gave up reading long articles like this some while ago.   The only time I’ll really read something is if it is titled “Gold and Silver Double Their Price Overnight.”
    The price is only thing that really matters.   
    I think reading constantly articles about Silver and Gold is the same as a person who has bought a new car and is interested in every report about it. (only good reports though).
    So now I just glance at the headlines and look at the price.   If the price hasn’t skyrocketed I do something else.

    • Yup.  Only price and what you hold matter anymore.  Pundit’s are a penny a dozen and not one of them correct.
       
      If all these articles had been correct we’d be looking at 5K Au and 500 Ag. 
       
      Oh well – keep stacking.

  2. The Impending Demise Of The London Silver Price Fix 0 comments
    Jun 24, 2014 9:38 PM | about stocks: GLDSLV

    As predicted by many in the industry, precious metals prices have begun rising, in what could be a long-lasting bull market. July Comex silver broke $21 per troy ounce on Friday trading, up nearly $3 an ounce from the recent lows around $18. Many investors and analysts are predicting a steady increase in silver prices up until August, when the London Silver Fix shuts down after 117 years.
    For those that are unfamiliar, gold and silver prices are determined by a price fix, conducted by the London Bullion Market Association, or LBMA. The price fixes are internationally-published benchmark prices, set by finding the average price discussed between a panel of industry participants. In modern times, the price fixing is done by three members of the LBMA during a conference call. Unlike the price fixing of gold, silver price fixing is only done once per day, at 12:00 A.M. London time. Of course, during the trading day, precious metals prices fluctuate due to demand.
    On August 14, 2014, the London Silver Price Fixing will end, and the price will be determined solely by the commodities markets. Many investors cheer this decision — for a long time, there have been strong suspicions of collusion and price manipulation by the members of the LBMA. For example, Deutsche Bank, one of the three members on the silver price fix, is facing over 20 lawsuits concerning price manipulation with the London Gold Fix.
    The hope of metals investors, of course, is that with the demise of the London Silver (and eventually, Gold) Fixes, that more transparency and honesty will permeate the precious metals markets, and that true price discovery will emerge from the process. Of course, if widespread price manipulation was taking place, as is alleged, we can expect the institutions involved to fight heavily to defend their advantages.
    What does the demise of the Silver Price Fix mean for the future of silver prices?
    Most investors are of one opinion – that silver prices were being manipulated by the LMBA and kept artificially low, therefore not reflecting true supply and demand. For example, in 2013 silver prices fell drastically, yet consumer and industrial demand were at all time highs. 2013 demand exceeded 1.081 billion ounces of silver!
    As we approach August 14th, many buyers have been watching silver prices extremely closely, and the increase in the silver spot price over the last week may be a reflection of the increased demand by investors who buy silver bullion. Indeed, sales of silver have been skyrocketing, with many investors who normally buy gold online switching over to silver bullion. Keep an eye on silver prices — if they start to spike in July, it is probably an indication that the demise of the London Silver Price Fix was artificially deflating silver prices, and we are likely to see the new, natural level sometime in the next few months.
    Themes: Precious MetalsGoldSilver Stocks: GLDSLV

  3. When something can no longer function, it will stop.  
    silver has been money for 5,000 years.  
    I’d bet on silver.
    So will TPTB when they want that bet too.
    I’d also bet with the Chinese and east Indians.  
    They’re betting the long game

  4. Somewhere I read the Silver Market was one year’s production ‘Short..well the shorts needs to pick up the pace before Aug 14t. 2014 whoever takes Over will be under the Criminal INVESTIGATIVE  EYE, to at least clean up the ‘shorts’ some transparence to start IMO

  5. I’m not a betting person. 
    Silver and gold are money.
    They represent rare earth metals.
    They represent energy+labour=value
    They are useful to even an ancient economy.
    More useful now, and in the future irreplacable commodity for industrial use.
    Silvers anti-bacterial properties second to none.
    They adorn the wearer with style.
    They transend all cultural boundries.
    The ultimate tradable/liquide bartering tool known to man.
    Hated by usuary peddlers .
    Keep stacking this subsidized metal/s

  6. “The possibility even exists that we will soon officially be in a recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP).”
     
    Does anyone seriously believe that those who fudge these numbers are gonna allow them to show that we are in a recession?  The fact that we are in a depression is conveniently ignored and will continue to be ignored until it cannot be ignored any longer.  The denial of economic reality IS the order of the day and it will stay that way as long as the current regime in DC has anything to say about it.  That will continue under another Dem regime, of course.  Whether the country continues, however, is open to debate.
     

  7. I hope there is a scam being exposed. Shills and parasites are doing their best to knock down the price of silver knowing the industrial buyers will push the price of silver up as their buying begins.  So how does it work?  Paper shorters sell the heck out of their digital nothing silver which industrial buyers buy and take delivery the next month or two. So how do the paper shorts get out of their short positions? 

  8. The US fed/gov will find a way to hold on and throw everything they have at inflation, there is no question this ends badly for the dollar but i truely believe its still about 12-15 years away. I say the shtf around 2030 give or take a few years.

  9. Metal is moving from West to East.  If nothing breaks that trend we should all start seeing physical shortages at the LCD in our own area at some point.  Just keep shorting that metal guys.  Somebody is going to get burned down the road.  It’s not going to be me. 

Leave a Reply