Alasdair Macleod: Germany’s Gold is the Story de Jour

goldIt transpired last week that of the 43-odd tonnes per annum the Bundesbank expects to be returned from the New York Fed, only 5 tonnes arrived in 2013.
Furthermore, of the 373.7 tonnes stored with the Banque de France, only 32 tonnes was delivered. This is little more than a morning’s delivery in the London market, so it is hard to swallow the Bundesbank’s excuses about logistics.
The burning question is why is it so difficult to get its gold back?


Submitted by Alasdair Macleod, Gold Money:

The most logical answer is that the Bundesbank’s gold is long gone, but without hard evidence this can only be conjecture. One would have thought that the New York Fed would have at least come up with closer to 40 tonnes if only to stop the rumour mill running.

There may be a risk that without clarification over the status of Germany’s gold at the New York Fed other central banks using the Fed or even the Bank of England’s storage facilities might decide to buy gold in the market, just in case. If that happens, bearing in mind that it is too early to think this is a real possibility, bullion prices could go much higher, given the lack of physical bullion available.

Anyway, after a slow start to the week, with the gold price drifting back to find support at the 50-day moving average, gold began to go sharply better yesterday before the London morning fix. Soon there was a story circulating via Reuters that Sonia Ghandi has asked the Indian government to ease up on gold import restrictions. No doubt this has something to do with mid-year elections, and if so there is the prospect of the government relenting on gold import restrictions to appease the voters.
These stories no doubt contributed to a more positive tone for gold, which seems to be overcoming the confines of the 50-day moving average as shown in the chart below.

gold-usd

The 50-day moving average is losing downwards momentum, indicating the gold price may be on the turn. The relevance of this average is that short-term traders often use it for market timing. Therefore, if gold manages to move convincingly through apparent supply above the $1260 level, we can expect these traders to close their shorts and go long. The chart for silver is shown below.

silver-usd

As with gold, silver is showing similar signs of bottoming out, as it tries to escape the confines of the $20-21 area and the 50-day moving average.

This week

Here is next week’s calendar:

Monday.

UK: Nationwide House Prices.
US: New Home Sales

Tuesday.

UK: GDP (first est.), Index of Services.
US: Durable Goods Orders, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting (two days)

Wednesday.

Eurozone: M3 Money Supply.
US: Fed Funds Rate.
Japan: Retail Sales.

Thursday.

UK: Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply.
Eurozone: Business Climate Index, Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Sentiment.
US: Core PCE Price Index, GDP, Initial Claims.
Japan: CPI, Real Household Spending, Unemployment, Industrial Production.

Friday.

Japan: Construction Orders, Housing Starts.
Eurozone: HICP (Flash), Unemployment.
US: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI.

 

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Comments

  1. If the emerging market difficulties are real, then you can expect that story to move the gold price higher and, presumably silver would tag along for the ride.  Realize that the emerging market conditions have the potential to develop into a contagion situation in a very short period of time, making black swans need only the size of turkey buzzards to be effective.

    Either way, events in the world are conspiring against the bears and shorts.

    Buckle Up!

  2. I can understand if an individual person is conflicted about a safe place to put Gold. THere isn’t any.  A whole country though like Germany couldn’t find a safe place to put their stack.  ”Uh hey uh Uncle Sam could you hold this 700 tons of Gold for me. I have no place to put it” your Gold is how you say it in German?  Kaput. 

    • Well the official story now seems to be that it prefers to keep it in Frankfurt rather than in New York, saving some storage fees. Seems they have updated their vaults since the 40′s? :-)

  3. How can failure to deliver 40-odd tonnes be a challenge due to availability when LBMA does multiple tonnes on a business morning? There are how many days in a year? How many tonnes flowing through LBMA?
    And the FED would not be able to cherry pick some bars without spinning the market out of control?

    How can an added increase in global demand (and this is accepting as fact that the German gold is stolen or at least totally leased out) by a less than one per cent raise bullion prices when these falling prices were seen amidst a market of great physical demand AND SUPPLY?

    Surely bullion prices will only be affeced when the very last bar is found in the last vault. Delays in delivery have thusfar done little to nothing in the way of price influece.

    Reason has died, long live fairytales.

  4. There is definitely the possibility the FED and US Treasury do not have Germany’s gold to give back to them.  But there is another possibility that everybody is ignoring.  It is possible the US Treasury really does have the German gold but won’t give it back to them ‘Right Now’ because they would use it to back a New German Deutsche Mark and leave the Euro.  That would be extremely chaotic and the easiest way to keep that from happening is not to give them back their gold right now.

    The Powers To Be are trying to hold onto power and that means they don’t want any chaos that they can avoid.  I’m leaning towards the second possibility right now.
     
     
     

    • Great Theory! 
      I had a slightly different idea, like you, I believe they could still hold Germany’s gold.
      But they are still holding it because one plausible reason for the False Flag of 9/11 
      was that it was allowed/orchestrated to cover up German Gold “Laundering”. 
      I never heard of that until I read the 9/11 commission report. 
      Starts on or about page 151 and goes for about 15 pages
       
      The 9/11 commission including that in there is very interesting to me. 
       
      You theory makes good sense. I just am “guessing” that TPTB could be holding their Gold, related to that. 
      They usually have multiple reasons or cover stories for everything they do anyway.

  5. This story is a little fishy smells bad. There should be a breach of contract some one is liable for wrong doing. An major law suits should be opened up. An it seems the germens aren’t real interested in getting there gold back. They should of asked for cash instead an then went on the open market to get it. There probably in on it with them an sold it an turned it into paper gold X100 to keep the price down. That much paper gold could keep the price down for 20 years.

  6. Supposedly, their gold was stored in the U.S. out of cold-war insecurity. It is widely reported that today a gold standard is impossible or impractical. If the  so-called “security-strip” in currency were made of gold instead of mylar, Germany’s(or any nation’s) gold reserves could have been distributed to its people, and there would be no need to shuttle it around the world. What is never said, though is that it is the central banks of the world which really own the “gold reserves”, and not the elected governments.

    • Due to their thievery, they may “own” the Gold. But in reality, they do not. 
      Central Banks and TPTB are calling all the shots, that is correct. But if their 
      illusion were to stop, GAME OVER! 
      A Gold Standard is not practical to them, for they lose their power if it is a Free Gold system. 
      @garimpiero

  7. @undeRGRound 9:45PM ([CB's]“ may “own” the Gold. But in reality, they do not. ” What does that mean? Since today is Ben Bernanke’s swan song, let me mention his first testimony after Obama was elected. The question was asked “Does the Fed own gold?” Scott Burns, the Fed counsel responded that it did not, “just certificates.” That was extremely odd: until 1933, every dollar bill $20 and up was a “gold certificate”, exchangeable on demand for bullion. Ownership of these became illegal once FDR took office in 1933. It sounds to me like he was saying “We have no gold on hand, but the certificates say it’s ours.” This is not a philanthropic organization: they did not help enable creation of $17 trillion in new debt for the fun of it.

    • What I was referring to is that if TPTB lose control, the true owners will assume control. GOLD should be freely traded, as a currency (or at least as a store of wealth) and Silver and Base Metals will be the new (once again) liquidity. This is dependent on the SHEEPLE waking up and getting fighting mad, however. May never happen ;)
      It remains to be seen how this all shakes out, and the longer it goes, the more confusion emerges! If you have some light to shine, Go for it!

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