SilverSpikedown21From SD reader Battle Beagle:

If volume is any indicator, the bottom just may have been set this afternoon in silver after the anticipated post Fed Minutes release smash. 

 

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Caution is warranted throughout Monday 2/25 however, which is March options expiration in both gold and silver.

SilverSpikedown21

 

Silver-Bottom2

 

SD Bullion

    • Dirt:  You DO have a way with woids (NY pronouncement)!  Today I got 600 more Mercury’s for UNDER spot.  I just love this slide.  It may well be over on Monday, however.

    • Alright @silverrrrr just what a true stacker should do and not complain. Your My Hero. Well I’ll be buying this weekend when I have some fiat, so hopefully it stays down a little, if it doesn’t, I’ll still buy. Keep Stacking

    • you’re right, I see an inverse head and shoulders sipping on a double handed cup of earl grey tea, perhaps a doji candle too.
       
      lmao.
       
      Good analysis. Greg the egg with a wooden leg mannarino ain’t got nothin on you…

    • Leave old Greg Mannarino alone.  He is mine to pick apart. 
      Update:
      Greg Mannarino- “I am literally doubling down on gold and silver.”  November 30,2012
      http://www.silverdoctors.com/greg-mannarino-time-to-double-down-on-gold-silver/
      November 30 2012
      Gold-1726
      Silver-34.26
      Feb.20,2013
      Gold-1570
      Silver-28.64
      Greg “double down” Mannarino is currently down 16.5% on silver since that call.  Nice going Greg!
      Why wouldn’t you trust a guy that had pork-chop sideburns and rings under his eyes. Greg is right in this video. A picture is worth a thousand words.

    • “…an inverse head and shoulders…”
       
      Gotta watch out for those.  The head could become stuck in an unmentionable place!  ;-)

  1. I don’t think the crooks are done raiding.  They are going to do this until they get whatever goals they have in mind accomplished.  They aren’t raiding to demoralize us as they have already done that.  They have other, more important goals, like covering as many old shorts as possible before gold turns up on March 27th.  You see, the crooks read Jim Sinclairs website also.  And, they are also part of his extended family. 

    • @JOHN IN PHILADELPHIA
      That doesn’t make sense. “They”, whoever “They” presicely are, I mean can anyone actually point to “Them” individually ?, are selling shorts and buying them up on the way down ?
      I’m having a bit of trouble here, I can feel the fingers starting to point but seriously you are explaining this to a country living truck driver, use small words and take as long as you like.
      I’m all ears.

  2. Hopefully this will become “The Battle Beagle Bottom” call of 2013?
     
    I expect the worst might be over after the massive amount of volume we saw today.
    I could be wrong, but the volume pattern speaks for itself over a long period of time.
    Insanely High Volume Mark Important Bottoms. 

  3. Could this be it the flash crash in the silver market? Meaning they will decrease the silver price low eough to get jp morgan out of there short pickel? Then start buying long could it happen. Or they get out of there short contracts an start all over?

    • I wish we knew the truth?  I have heard that JPMorgan is having a hard time covering shorts.  How can this be true when it is said that they are naked shorting.  If they are naked shorting why do they need to find phyzz to cover?  Why can’t they just cover using paper?  Hell, I must be too dumb to understand what is going on here.

  4. Let me say it again, OK,
     
    Try giving your wife a paper bracelet instead of silver, or a paper necklace instead of gold and tell her they are the same, I dare ya !
     As to tracking gold on paper, GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT.  I am picking bottom but I feel like I am picking thru a dump !
    Check your LCS and others, see  how much they want to sell at these prices……..
    Visit me @ :  http://coinring4u.blogspot.ca/
                  &   http://www.denaliguidesummit.blogspot.ca/
     

    • “Try giving your wife a paper bracelet instead of silver, or a paper necklace instead of gold and tell her they are the same, I dare ya !”
       
      NO, THANKS!  No death wish here!  lol
       

  5. Help!! Newbie here, can anyone explain….. the spot Ag price has been smacked down by a paper dump, so based on the assumption it will eventually turn and go back up, will it go up because of the paper market or physical, considering the physical market is quite strong?? Does the spot price only reflect paper demand or both?? Also if central banks across the world are on a stacking binge of PM’s why is this demand not somehow reflected in the charts and spot price?
    Apologies for my ignorance but some clarity would help. Oh…. and am I right in understanding that TPTB prevent high sales in physical being reflected in the markets through paper dumps and their creation? I may have just stated the obvious and answered my own question, but any info is greatly appreciated!! 

    • Hey, Juice… I am not an “expert” on this but will pass along my thoughts on it anyway.  That’s the great part of blogging!  :-)
       
      Years ago when the paper market first began, it was very small and the bigger physical metals market set the prices.  Mostly, this was done via supply and demand with some attention paid to currency moves and other political news.  Gradually, the paper market grew and got bigger, then much bigger, than absolutely HUGE.  In recent years, the paper market has gotten so big that it now dwarfs the physical metal market and therefore sets the prices.  It is the tail but it definitely wags the entire dog.  
       
      Unlike real physical metals, paper metals can use leverage via derivatives.  This is an advantage in the price setting mechanism.  It has been estimated that for every ounce of physical silver available in the world, there is 100 or more ounces of paper silver, so one could say that the paper silver market is leveraged at 100 to 1.  Clearly, if more than 1% of those who bought paper silver ever “stand for delivery”, meaning that they want their futures contracts settled in metal rather than in dollars, the metals futures market would experience a “failure to deliver”.  Since these paper markets exist on the premise that either metals or dollars will be delivered on demand, their failure to do that would be devastating.  In fact, it could lead to a collapse of the paper silver market because people investing these these futures contracts would become aware that conversion to metal might not be possible just when they require it.  Money would exit the paper silver market en mass, causing the market to implode and, for all practical purposes, cease to exist.  While this may not be likely, it is possible.  
       
      Because of this, there are some investors with really huge amounts of money at stake in the paper silver market who profit from it by forcing silver prices higher or lower and making counter moves that result in profits.  Much of this is achieved by the process known as “naked shorting”.  When shorting a stock, one borrows the stock, sells it, and then hopes to buy it back later at a lower price and pocket the difference.  The stock is sent to the original lender as payment for the original stock borrowing.  A naked short is what occurs when this process is done but nothing is borrowed in the 1st place.  These investors are selling something they do not own.  While this should be illegal on its face, it is not.  The SEC tends to “discourage the practice of naked shorting”, however, whatever that means in SEC-speak.
       
      In recent years, we have seen MASSIVE dumps of paper silver onto the market at very specific times of the day.  These are visible signs of an orchestrated price smash.  On Feb 29th, 2012, a classic example of a paper price smash with 225,000,000 ounces of paper silver and 30,000,000 (IIRC) ounces of paper gold dumped into the metals markets in 30 minutes.  Predictably, this forced prices lower in both silver and gold… but then a curious thing happened.  Both metals began to rise and some very large buyers moved in and started buying physical silver and gold in very large amounts.  These buyers were likely Asians, who tend to have a very healthy appetite for precious metals, especially the Chinese and Indians.
       
      Anyway, many people believe that all this paper dumping is a form of market manipulation designed to milk the market for profits that have nothing to do with genuine rises and falls in the price of precious metals.  History shows us that anything that can be manipulated for someone’s profit WILL be.  See: LIBOR Scandal for a 1st class example of this with very minor repercussions for having cheated people out of money in the markets.
       
      Metals prices move up after a paper price smash because more buyers come in to buy cheaper metals and bid the prices up.  These metals are bought and sold all over the world, so it isn’t just US and EU buyers anymore.
       
      Many central banks are buying gold in multi-ton quantities.  In the late 1990s to early 2000s, they were net sellers of gold bullion.  Yes, their buying and selling does affect prices but other forces are at work here.  CB’s are buying about 1/4 of the gold mined each year, so 3/4 of the gold mined each year is purchased by others.
       
      TPTB do orchestrate these paper dumps and various buying and selling.  One theory is that they are in league with various national governments and that this is one way of holding down precious metals prices, which makes fiat currencies look much better as an asset class than the fundamentals would otherwise justify.  It can be proved that the US government has done this in the gold market via Freedom of Information Act requests for letters between various Fed Chiefs and Presidents wherein such manipulation was planned and discussed as a routine matter.  GATA has a lot of info on this.  I do not know if this has been discovered in the silver market as well but it would seem in character for these people if it was.
       
      I hope that this answers some of your questions and that, if anyone else can comment on this, add to it, or correct any mistakes I may have made, they will.
       

    • Hey, no problem, Julie.  I’ve learned a TON here and at several other web sites I read.  I like to share it with others when I can… pass it along, you know?  
       
      YouTube has a lot of great documentaries on it regarding money, gold and silver, financial history, etc.  “The Creature from Jekyll Island” was great as are most of the things done by Niall Ferguson.  Lots of info out there.  Just keep your eye on the ball and your BS filter in place to separate the gold from the dross.  Finding info is good but finding verification of it is even better.  :-)

  6. I’m wondering if the impending sequestration problem, along with the debt ceiling debates and a pretty good chance of the US debt downgrade happening in the next couple of months, have something to do with these actions. 
    Is someone trying to get rid of any large holdings in paper?  The hedge funds and  large institutional equity holders are lightening up on stock holdings.   Shorts can be deadly in high VIX environments. Vix is low–calm before the storm. The European situation, bankruptcies impending in Detroit and Baltimore, a real cash flow crisis in California due to $5 billion revenue shortfall, and the China/Japan problems resurfacing are just a few  of the trip wires that could make for real problems.
    The liquidity needed to continue knocking down the PM prices is readily available from the government. If there is a modest chance of a devaluation of the USD due to China ridding itself of toxic US treasury paper, a dollar devaluation could be on the horizon. That would help the price of precious metals by a large factor. How much? Who knows. But no one wants to get caught with their shorts down if prices jet up over any of these pressing problems.
    Frankly, a $25 paper silver price could happen, particularly if the equity markets pucker up. Silver might be available at that price but only in limited amounts. Maybe a quick snapshot buy if someone needs cash at the LCS. It won’t stay there long

    PS If things really get dicey the Fed will revert to form with a QE tranche that will make everything prior to it look small. These people think you can solve every problem with more FIAT printing. Also, watch the UST 10 yr rate. These events could have a serious affect on this rate, averaging 2% recently, goes up sharply. Our problems would be compounded. If bond prices drop, the game is nearly over.
    Also watch to see if there is more dipping into pension funds in the US and overseas. That is also a tipping point when our bonds can’t be sold or refinanced. There’s $5 trillion on the table that need to be dealt with by mid 2013

    • AGXIIK.  I hate what is going on right now.  The price is down and no one here will sell you a damn oz at these prices.  They are out of inventory.  In otherwords, when the price goes back up they will recieve more inventory.  Little guy doesn’t stand a chance.  At least in the US you can still order metals at the current price.  I am afraid that as these prices continue lower that spreads are going to get wider and wider.

    • “The price is down and no one here will sell you a damn oz at these prices.  They are out of inventory.  In otherwords, when the price goes back up they will recieve more inventory.”
       
      Yeah, that’s what they say but the odds favor them having inventory purchased at higher prices and they simply have it in the back room, refusing to sell it at these lower prices.  Yes, it is annoying for buyers but probably a necessity for many small shops.  A few years ago, silver dropped from around $17 an oz. to just under $10 an oz.  But there was no silver to be found.  People who had it simply refused to sell it at that price.  Once the price moved up, all sorts of inventory was available.  It was almost like… magic.  ;-)
       

    • The problem with where I live is that we have tariffs to pay.  Thats why I don’t order online.  There is a process that we have to go thru to recieve PM when we order thru the mail and the damn tariffs make it not even worth it.  Panama is not a banking center like they want you to believe.  Don’t move here if you want to own metals.  It sucks.  Mexico is different I understand.  You can go into a bank and buy a gold coin at fair prices.  You can also sell them to a bank.  Panama is a thinly traded pm market and the people here could care less about gold and silver.  They got me by the privates here. 

  7. I think we should be very cautious about buying right now.  What if the crooks have decided to drive metals down another 20%?  Think about this for a minute.  Jim Sinclair has said that this would be the last major raid.  If he is right, why wouldn’t they just go for broke?  Just bust the damn price down into oblivion and just rip the hearts of the paper longs.  This could be what is going on.  They could cover virtually all shorts if they chose to and totally demoralize all of us.  If this happens I will not capitulate because I still got another couple years of waiting left in me.  I don’t know the future but this is a possibility.  Heres a video sharing a form of this opinion.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGSyJT3BARI&feature=player_embedded
     

    • “They could cover virtually all shorts if they chose to and totally demoralize all of us.”
       
      Stackers do not get demoralized by falling PM prices.  When PMs go on sale, we BUY with JOY!
       
      “What if the crooks have decided to drive metals down another 20%?”
       
      What if they have?  Then we buy more.  Dollar cost buying and selling of PMs IS a valid technique.  It works with PMs just as well as it does with stocks.  They can drive the paper price of PMs to zero for all I care because neither their paper games nor their fiat prices matter a diddly-damn to me.  All that matters to me is that I have the ounces of gold and silver I think necessary to secure my family’s future.  I am not all-in on PMs but do have a substantial amount of them as my financial ” Oh, crap!” insurance.
       

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